Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 43%, against 33% for a draw and 25% for LNZ Cherkasy. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; LNZ Cherkasy have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chornomorets(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Karpaty(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Bukovyna(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Gent(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Gent(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 LNZ Cherkasy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4 LNZ Cherkasy | Premier League |
| Apr 11, 2025 | LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 LNZ Cherkasy | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk on Apr 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; LNZ Cherkasy score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| LNZ Cherkasy | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and LNZ Cherkasy sit 8th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | LNZ Cherkasy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 43%, against 33% for a draw and 25% for LNZ Cherkasy.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.