Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 8Kick-off on January 27, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Shakhtar Donetsk. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,566 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 208-point Elo edge (2,395 vs 2,187).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Shakhtar Donetsk
4-1-4-1- 9Kauã Elias
- 6Marlon Gomes
- 30Alisson Santana
- 27O. Ocheretko
- 77G. Mendoza
- 29E. Nazaryna
- 22M. Matvienko
- 13Pedrinho
- 17Vinícius Tobias
- 5V. Bondar
- 31D. Riznyk
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 5J. Bellingham
- 20Bernardo Silva
- 25Y. Diomande
- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 6E. Camavinga
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 24D. Dumfries
- 3Éder Militão
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Real Madrid have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Shakhtar Donetsk wins, 1 draw, 3 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2022 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Real Madrid 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Real Madrid 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0-5 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Dec 1, 2020 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Real Madrid 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid on Oct 11, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.7 | 0.5 | 8 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 21st in UEFA Champions League (4 points from 4 matches) and Real Madrid sit 2nd (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 12 |
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
A question about Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid is played on January 27, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.