Shatin vs Southern District: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC)Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Southern District the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Shatin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shatin vs Southern District?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Shatin (1,358) and Southern District (1,436).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shatin have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Southern District have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hong Kong FC(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Eastern District(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Hong Kong FC(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Kowloon City(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Shatin win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Southern District win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2015 | Southern District 6-0 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Jan 21, 2015 | Shatin 1-4 Southern District | HKFA 1st Division |
| Jan 15, 2012 | Southern District 3-1 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Sep 25, 2011 | Shatin 1-1 Southern District | HKFA 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Southern District vs Shatin on Apr 15, 2015
How many goals should we expect?
Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Southern District score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Southern District | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Southern District | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 35 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shatin vs Southern District?
- The Footlab model makes Southern District the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Shatin.
- Where and when is Shatin vs Southern District played?
- Shatin vs Southern District is played on December 13, 2026 at 07:00 AM (UTC) at Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.