Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Shinnik, Yaroslavl'
The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Spartak Kostroma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Shinnik Yaroslavl (1,856) and Spartak Kostroma (1,842).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shinnik Yaroslavl have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Spartak Kostroma have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Shinnik Yaroslavl win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Spartak Kostroma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-2 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Kostroma vs Shinnik Yaroslavl on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shinnik Yaroslavl score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 6th in First League (12 points from 7 matches) and Spartak Kostroma sit 8th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma?
- The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Spartak Kostroma.
- Where and when is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma played?
- Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Shinnik, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.