Shrewsbury vs Tranmere: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes Shrewsbury the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tranmere. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shrewsbury vs Tranmere?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Shrewsbury (1,640) and Tranmere (1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shrewsbury have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Tranmere have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shrewsbury win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tranmere win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere 2-0 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Shrewsbury 1-0 Tranmere | League Two |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Tranmere 4-0 Shrewsbury | League Two |
| Feb 25, 2020 | Shrewsbury 2-3 Tranmere | League One |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Tranmere 0-1 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Oct 9, 2018 | Shrewsbury 6-0 Tranmere | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Tranmere vs Shrewsbury on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tranmere score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tranmere | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shrewsbury sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Tranmere sit 1st (8 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tranmere | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 3 | Shrewsbury | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shrewsbury vs Tranmere?
- The Footlab model makes Shrewsbury the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tranmere.
- Where and when is Shrewsbury vs Tranmere played?
- Shrewsbury vs Tranmere is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at The Croud Meadow, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.