Southend vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 40Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Roots Hall, Southend-on-Sea, Essex
The Footlab AI model makes Southend the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Carlisle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southend wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southend vs Carlisle?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Southend (1,964) and Carlisle (1,920).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southend vs Carlisle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southend
4-3-3- 9H. Cardwell
- 14P. Omochere
- 27R. Colclough
- 19L. Chambers-Parillon
- 8D. Oldaker
- 4A. Hartigan
- 2V. Campbell
- 3Kyle James McAdam
- 6B. Goodliffe
- 20D. Cox
- 1J. Duncan
Carlisle
4-3-3- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 9G. Kelly
- 6M. Azeez
- 4H. Bunker
- 30T. Jenks
- 15B. Nicholson
- 17L. Duru
- 5M. Feeney
- 18J. Ellis
- 1A. Desbois
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southend have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Carlisle have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Boston United(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | AFC Fylde(home) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-4 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Gateshead(away) | 6-1 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 0-0 | National League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | AFC Fylde(away) | 2-0 | National League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-5 | National League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 0-1 | National League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Southend win, 2 draws, 3 Carlisle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Carlisle 2-2 Southend | National League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Carlisle 2-2 Southend | National League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Southend 1-2 Carlisle | National League |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Southend 0-2 Carlisle | League Two |
| Sep 19, 2020 | Carlisle 2-0 Southend | League Two |
| Feb 28, 2015 | Southend 2-0 Carlisle | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Southend score 2.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Carlisle | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southend sit 3rd in National League (27 points from 13 matches) and Carlisle sit 14th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Southend | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 19 | 27 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
A question about Southend vs Carlisle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southend vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southend the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Carlisle.
- Where and when is Southend vs Carlisle played?
- Southend vs Carlisle is played on March 20, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Roots Hall, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.