Carlisle vs Southend: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Southend. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Southend?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Carlisle (1,902) and Southend (1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Southend have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Carlisle win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Southend win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Carlisle 2-2 Southend | National League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Southend 1-2 Carlisle | National League |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Southend 0-2 Carlisle | League Two |
| Sep 19, 2020 | Carlisle 2-0 Southend | League Two |
| Feb 28, 2015 | Southend 2-0 Carlisle | League Two |
| Aug 23, 2014 | Carlisle 1-1 Southend | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 12th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and Southend sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Southend?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Southend.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Southend played?
- Carlisle vs Southend is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.