Southport vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 20Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The BIG HELP Stadium, Southport, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Southport. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southport vs Merthyr Town?
Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,842 vs 1,641).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southport vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southport
Not enough data to predict the Southport lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 02:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southport have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Merthyr Town have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-5 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Southport win, 0 draws, 1 Merthyr Town win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Southport 1-0 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Merthyr Town 2-0 Southport | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Southport vs Merthyr Town on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southport score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southport | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southport sit 23rd in National League - North (10 points from 15 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 17th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Merthyr Town | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 19 |
| 23 | Southport | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 10 |
A question about Southport vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southport vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Southport.
- Where and when is Southport vs Merthyr Town played?
- Southport vs Merthyr Town is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The BIG HELP Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.