Spalding United vs Buxton: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 20Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sir Halley Stewart Field, Spalding, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Spalding United the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Buxton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spalding United vs Buxton?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Spalding United (1,901) and Buxton (1,883).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spalding United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Buxton have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Macclesfield(home) | 0-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oxford City(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bedford Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Southport(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hereford(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warrington Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Spalding United score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Buxton score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Buxton | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spalding United sit 13th in National League - North (4 points from 4 matches) and Buxton sit 14th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spalding United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Buxton | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spalding United vs Buxton?
- The Footlab model makes Spalding United the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Buxton.
- Where and when is Spalding United vs Buxton played?
- Spalding United vs Buxton is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sir Halley Stewart Field, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.