Chester vs Oxford City: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 20Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Deva Stadium, Chester, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Oxford City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chester vs Oxford City?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Chester (1,926) and Oxford City (1,842).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chester have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Oxford City have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Harborough Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spalding United(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Slough Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Chester win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Oxford City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Oxford City 1-2 Chester | National League - North |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Chester 2-1 Oxford City | National League - North |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Oxford City 0-0 Chester | National League - North |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Chester 3-1 Oxford City | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Oxford City vs Chester on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chester score 1.3 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford City score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Oxford City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chester sit 1st in National League - North (12 points from 4 matches) and Oxford City sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Oxford City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chester vs Oxford City?
- The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Oxford City.
- Where and when is Chester vs Oxford City played?
- Chester vs Oxford City is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Deva Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.