Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava: prediction and stats
Czech LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)epet ARENA, Praha
The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Baník Ostrava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Sparta Praha starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,079 vs 1,918).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Praha have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Baník Ostrava have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Artis(away) | 4-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Teplice(home) | 4-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav(away) | 0-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Artis(home) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Slavia Praha(home) | 0-4 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Zlin(away) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | AS Trencin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sparta Praha win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Baník Ostrava win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Sparta Praha 5-2 Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Baník Ostrava 3-2 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Baník Ostrava 1-1 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Sparta Praha 1-3 Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| May 14, 2024 | Sparta Praha 2-1 Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Praha score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Baník Ostrava score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Baník Ostrava | 1.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Praha sit 5th in Czech Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Baník Ostrava sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Baník Ostrava.
- Where and when is Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava played?
- Sparta Praha vs Baník Ostrava is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at epet ARENA, in the Czech Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.