Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav: prediction and stats
Czech LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)epet ARENA, Praha
The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mlada Boleslav. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
Sparta Praha starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,079 vs 1,970).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Praha have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Mlada Boleslav have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Artis(away) | 4-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Teplice(home) | 4-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav(away) | 0-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slovácko(home) | 2-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pardubice(away) | 1-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 2-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sigma Olomouc(away) | 2-2 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Artis(away) | 4-2 | Czech Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sparta Praha win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mlada Boleslav win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Sparta Praha | Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Sparta Praha 3-2 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sparta Praha 2-0 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
Last archived meeting: Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Praha on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Praha score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mlada Boleslav score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Mlada Boleslav | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Praha sit 5th in Czech Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Mlada Boleslav sit 2nd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Mlada Boleslav.
- Where and when is Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav played?
- Sparta Praha vs Mlada Boleslav is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at epet ARENA, in the Czech Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.