Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Urozhaj, Karavaevo
The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Spartak Kostroma (1,842) and Arsenal Tula (1,772).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Kostroma have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Spartak Kostroma win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Arsenal Tula win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Arsenal Tula 1-1 Spartak Kostroma | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Kostroma sit 8th in First League (12 points from 7 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula played?
- Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Urozhaj, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.