Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Arsenal, Tula
The Footlab model makes Arsenal Tula the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Spartak Kostroma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Arsenal Tula (1,771) and Spartak Kostroma (1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal Tula have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Spartak Kostroma have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(away) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Arsenal Tula win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Spartak Kostroma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Arsenal Tula 1-1 Spartak Kostroma | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 1-2 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma on Jun 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Kostroma score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal Tula sit 9th in First League (11 points from 8 matches) and Spartak Kostroma sit 8th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spartak Kostroma | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal Tula the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Spartak Kostroma.
- Where and when is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma played?
- Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Arsenal, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.