Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk: prediction and stats
CupRegions Path - Semi-finalsKick-off on October 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Urozhaj, Karavaevo
The Footlab AI model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Chelyabinsk. The most likely score is 1-1. If Spartak Kostroma wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
Spartak Kostroma starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,874 vs 1,774).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spartak Kostroma
3-4-1-2- 90A. Kalmykov
- 10D. Karaev
- 22A. Nemchenko
- 17D. Kaptilovich
- 87Armin Spahic
- 69K. Chursin
- 18V. Kamilov
- 7K. Malyarov
- 2N. Tarasov
- 21M. Bugarin
- 68M. Gaydash
Chelyabinsk
4-2-3-1- 10R. Gadzhimuradov
- 55G. Borisov
- 29M. Urvantsev
- 18K. Kertanov
- 6S. Makarov
- 17B. N'Diaye
- 21A. Berdnikov
- 15K. Kochiev
- 72A. Bem
- 24N. Pridava
- 1I. Lomaev
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Kostroma have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Chelyabinsk have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Ural(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Chelyabinsk(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Enisey(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | KAMAZ(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Dinamo Barnaul(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Spartak Kostroma(home) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Spartak Kostroma wins, 2 draws, 0 Chelyabinsk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Chelyabinsk 0-1 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Chelyabinsk 3-3 Spartak Kostroma | First League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 2-1 Chelyabinsk | First League |
| May 18, 2025 | Chelyabinsk 1-5 Spartak Kostroma | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Spartak Kostroma 3-1 Chelyabinsk | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Spartak Kostroma 0-0 Chelyabinsk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
Last archived meeting: Chelyabinsk vs Spartak Kostroma on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Kostroma score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Chelyabinsk score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Kostroma | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Chelyabinsk | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Spartak Kostroma the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Chelyabinsk.
- Where and when is Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk played?
- Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk is played on October 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Urozhaj, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.