Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Ponte Preta. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Sport Recife starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (1,876 vs 1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Recife have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Ponte Preta have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Goias(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Avai(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 0-6 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sport Recife win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Ponte Preta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Ponte Preta 1-3 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Ponte Preta 0-4 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Sport Recife 3-1 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Oct 9, 2023 | Sport Recife 3-3 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Jun 11, 2023 | Ponte Preta 1-1 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Sep 7, 2022 | Ponte Preta 1-0 Sport Recife | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Recife score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte Preta score 0.6 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Ponte Preta | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Recife sit 8th in Serie B (35 points from 23 matches) and Ponte Preta sit 20th (10 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 35 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 50 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Ponte Preta.
- Where and when is Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta played?
- Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta is played on September 9, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.