ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)McDiarmid Park, Perth
The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 1-1. If ST Johnstone wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,855 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate ST Johnstone (1,865) and Motherwell (1,850).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ST Johnstone
4-2-3-1- 9J. Fowler
- 8J. Holt
- 42R. McAlear
- 11S. Stanton
- 7T. Steven
- 30J. Cotterill
- 33L. Smith
- 19D. Finlayson
- 3C. Diabate
- 14M. Foulds
- 1T. Steward
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 8L. Fadinger
- 11A. Lowry
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 19I. Said
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 2S. O'Donnell
- 1A. Paulsen
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 12:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Johnstone have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Motherwell have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ST Johnstone wins, 0 draws, 4 Motherwell wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Motherwell | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Motherwell 3-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ST Johnstone 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Motherwell | FA Cup |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Motherwell 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Aug 31, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
ST Johnstone score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Johnstone sit 5th in Premiership (12 points from 9 matches) and Motherwell sit 10th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab AI model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is ST Johnstone vs Motherwell played?
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at McDiarmid Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.