ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)McDiarmid Park, Perth
The Footlab model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate ST Johnstone (1,922) and Motherwell (1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Johnstone have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Motherwell have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kilmarnock(home) | 4-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Morton(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ST Johnstone win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Motherwell win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Motherwell | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Motherwell 3-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ST Johnstone 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Motherwell | FA Cup |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Motherwell 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Aug 31, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
ST Johnstone score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 2.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Johnstone sit 6th in Premiership (3 points from 2 matches) and Motherwell sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is ST Johnstone vs Motherwell played?
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at McDiarmid Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.