St. Louis City II vs North Texas: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
The Footlab model makes St. Louis City II the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for North Texas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Louis City II vs North Texas?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate St. Louis City II (1,689) and North Texas (1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Louis City II have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; North Texas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(home) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | The Town(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(away) | 0-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Monarchs(home) | 3-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Austin II(home) | 0-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers II(home) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ventura County(away) | 1-6 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 St. Louis City II win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 North Texas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
| May 30, 2026 | St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2025 | North Texas 1-3 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Jun 5, 2025 | St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 10, 2025 | North Texas 0-3 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Nov 3, 2024 | North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: North Texas vs St. Louis City II on Jul 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Louis City II score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; North Texas score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City II | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| North Texas | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St. Louis City II sit 6th in MLS Next Pro (39 points from 24 matches) and North Texas sit 9th (33 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 39 |
| 4 | North Texas | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 23 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 6 | St. Louis City II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 39 |
| 9 | North Texas | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | North Texas | 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Louis City II vs North Texas?
- The Footlab model makes St. Louis City II the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for North Texas.
- Where and when is St. Louis City II vs North Texas played?
- St. Louis City II vs North Texas is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC