ST Mirren vs Motherwell: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
The Footlab model makes ST Mirren the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Motherwell. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate ST Mirren (1,884) and Motherwell (1,973).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Mirren have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Motherwell have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-5 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 4-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ST Mirren win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Motherwell win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | ST Mirren 0-5 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Motherwell 2-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Motherwell 1-4 ST Mirren | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2025 | ST Mirren 0-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Motherwell 2-2 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Dec 7, 2024 | ST Mirren 0-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Mirren vs Motherwell on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ST Mirren score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Mirren sit 3rd in Premiership (6 points from 2 matches) and Motherwell sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Mirren vs Motherwell?
- The Footlab model makes ST Mirren the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Motherwell.
- Where and when is ST Mirren vs Motherwell played?
- ST Mirren vs Motherwell is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The SMISA Stadium, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.