Stabaek vs Sogndal: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nadderud Stadion, Bærum
The Footlab model makes Stabaek the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 9% for Sogndal. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stabaek vs Sogndal?
Stabaek starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stabaek have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Sogndal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Heming(away) | 2-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Egersund(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lyn(home) | 4-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Raufoss(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 27, 2026 | hodd(home) | 6-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fjøra(away) | 8-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandnes ULF(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bryne(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lyn(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ranheim(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stabaek win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Sogndal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Sogndal 2-2 Stabaek | 1. Division |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Stabaek 1-0 Sogndal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Stabaek 1-2 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Sogndal 1-1 Stabaek | 1. Division |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Stabaek 1-1 Sogndal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Stabaek 2-0 Sogndal | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Stabaek score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sogndal score 2.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stabaek | 2.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Sogndal | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stabaek sit 1st in 1. Division (39 points from 18 matches) and Sogndal sit 10th (21 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stabaek | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 39 |
| 5 | Stabaek | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 21 |
| 10 | Sogndal | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 21 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stabaek vs Sogndal?
- The Footlab model makes Stabaek the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 9% for Sogndal.
- Where and when is Stabaek vs Sogndal played?
- Stabaek vs Sogndal is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nadderud Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.