Sogndal vs Raufoss: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Fosshaugane Campus, Sogndal
The Footlab model makes Sogndal the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Raufoss. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sogndal vs Raufoss?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Sogndal (1,768) and Raufoss (1,719).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sogndal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Raufoss have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fjøra(away) | 8-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandnes ULF(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bryne(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lyn(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ranheim(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ridabu(away) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Asane(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Haugesund(away) | 2-7 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Stabaek(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Moss(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sogndal win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Raufoss win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Raufoss 3-1 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Sogndal 1-1 Raufoss | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Raufoss 1-3 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| May 31, 2025 | Sogndal 2-2 Raufoss | 1. Division |
| Sep 2, 2024 | Raufoss 4-1 Sogndal | 1. Division |
| May 22, 2024 | Sogndal 1-1 Raufoss | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Sogndal score 2.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Raufoss score 1.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sogndal | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Raufoss | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sogndal sit 10th in 1. Division (21 points from 18 matches) and Raufoss sit 15th (16 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sogndal | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 21 |
| 12 | Sogndal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 12 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 43 | 16 |
| 15 | Raufoss | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sogndal vs Raufoss?
- The Footlab model makes Sogndal the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Raufoss.
- Where and when is Sogndal vs Raufoss played?
- Sogndal vs Raufoss is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Fosshaugane Campus, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.