Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Centre sportif de Colovray, Nyon
The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Stade Nyonnais. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau?
FC Aarau starts as the favourite with a 230-point Elo edge (1,874 vs 1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Nyonnais have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; FC Aarau have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(home) | 0-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Amical Saint-Prex(away) | 3-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Aarau(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Rapperswil(home) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(away) | 0-2 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 3-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stade Nyonnais win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 FC Aarau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC Aarau 2-1 Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| May 8, 2026 | FC Aarau 5-1 Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais 1-1 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | FC Aarau 0-1 Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Stade Nyonnais 4-5 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| May 23, 2025 | FC Aarau 1-1 Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: FC Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Nyonnais score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Aarau score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 0.8 | 2.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Aarau | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Nyonnais sit 10th in Challenge League (1 points from 4 matches) and FC Aarau sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Aarau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau?
- The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Stade Nyonnais.
- Where and when is Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau played?
- Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Centre sportif de Colovray, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.