Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Raith Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stenhousemuir wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Stenhousemuir (1,839) and Raith Rovers (1,810).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stenhousemuir
3-4-3- 11L. O'Donnell
- 20G. Stevenson
- 15D. Carrick
- 2R. Meechan
- 17M. Anderson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 8F. Robson
- 19S. Bright
- 5S. Young
- 24L. Grant
- 1D. Jamieson
Raith Rovers
4-2-3-1- 9G. Oakley
- 11J. Robertson
- 15S. Tiffoney
- 25K. Montagu
- 7A. Lyall
- 20S. Brown
- 2J. Rowe
- 3Z. Delaney
- 6J. Baird
- 5C. Fordyce
- 1J. Rae
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stenhousemuir have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Raith Rovers have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ayr Utd(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Morton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Partick(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Stenhousemuir wins, 2 draws, 3 Raith Rovers wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers 1-1 Stenhousemuir | Championship |
| Apr 6, 2019 | Stenhousemuir 1-1 Raith Rovers | League One |
| Jan 5, 2019 | Raith Rovers 5-1 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Nov 17, 2018 | Stenhousemuir 1-3 Raith Rovers | League One |
| Aug 11, 2018 | Raith Rovers 2-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
Last archived meeting: Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Raith Rovers score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stenhousemuir sit 1st in Championship (22 points from 8 matches) and Raith Rovers sit 2nd (17 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
A question about Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Raith Rovers.
- Where and when is Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers played?
- Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ochilview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.