Ayr Utd vs Partick: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Somerset Park, Ayr
The Footlab model makes Partick the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Ayr Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Partick?
Partick starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,883 vs 1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ayr Utd have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Partick have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Clydebank(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ayr Utd win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Partick win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Partick | Championship |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Partick 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-0 Partick | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Partick 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Partick 2-0 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| May 9, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-2 Partick | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Partick score 1.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Partick | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ayr Utd sit 5th in Championship (4 points from 3 matches) and Partick sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Partick | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ayr Utd vs Partick?
- The Footlab model makes Partick the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Ayr Utd.
- Where and when is Ayr Utd vs Partick played?
- Ayr Utd vs Partick is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Somerset Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.