Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Norra GötalandNorra Götaland - 21Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Olssons Trävaror Arena, Stenungsund
The Footlab model makes Stenungsund the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Vänersborgs FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Stenungsund (1,400) and Vänersborgs FK (1,360).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stenungsund have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Vänersborgs FK have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Grebbestad(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kumla(home) | 5-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lidköping(away) | 2-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Skara(home) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Trollhättan(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | IFK Skövde(home) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vänersborgs IF(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Skara(away) | 0-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Herrestads(home) | 2-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Motala(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stenungsund win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Vänersborgs FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Vänersborgs FK 2-4 Stenungsund | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Vänersborgs FK 1-0 Stenungsund | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| May 25, 2024 | Stenungsund 1-3 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Stenungsund 1-1 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 16, 2023 | Vänersborgs FK 0-0 Stenungsund | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Stenungsund 1-3 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Vänersborgs FK vs Stenungsund on Jun 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stenungsund score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Vänersborgs FK score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenungsund | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Vänersborgs FK | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stenungsund sit 6th in Division 2 - Norra Götaland (18 points from 13 matches) and Vänersborgs FK sit 10th (13 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stenungsund | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 18 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 25 | 26 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK?
- The Footlab model makes Stenungsund the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Vänersborgs FK.
- Where and when is Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK played?
- Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK is played on September 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Olssons Trävaror Arena, in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.