Stevenage vs Plymouth: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Stevenage. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stevenage vs Plymouth?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Stevenage (1,836) and Plymouth (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stevenage have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Plymouth have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Stevenage win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Plymouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage | League One |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Stevenage 1-1 Plymouth | League One |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Stevenage 1-2 Plymouth | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2019 | Plymouth 2-1 Stevenage | League Two |
| Nov 10, 2018 | Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage | FA Cup |
| Jan 14, 2017 | Plymouth 4-2 Stevenage | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Plymouth vs Stevenage on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Plymouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Plymouth | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stevenage sit 19th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Plymouth sit 22nd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Stevenage.
- Where and when is Stevenage vs Plymouth played?
- Stevenage vs Plymouth is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Lamex Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.