Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Austria Vienna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sturm Graz wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (2,094 vs 1,976).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sturm Graz
3-4-2-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 19S. Seidl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 27L. Balbo
- 28J. Heil
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 2J. Quarshie
- 23A. Malic
- 30P. Koller
- 53D. Khudyakov
Austria Vienna
4-2-3-1- 19J. Eggestein
- 30M. Fischer
- 5V. Müller
- 40Daniel Nnodim
- 10S. Saljic
- 7V. Markovic
- 26R. Ranftl
- 46J. Handl
- 3I. Buhari
- 17Lee Tae-Seok
- 1S. Şahin-Radlinger
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Austria Vienna have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ried(away) | 2-3 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Admira Wacker(away) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Grazer AK(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sturm Graz wins, 1 draw, 3 Austria Vienna wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Austria Vienna 2-5 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Austria Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Austria Vienna score 1.6 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Austria Vienna | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 4th in Bundesliga (17 points from 9 matches) and Austria Vienna sit 10th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 17 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 7 |
A question about Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Austria Vienna.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna played?
- Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.