AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
On Elo ratings, AZ Alkmaar has 2,126 points and Sturm Graz 2,078.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 24A. Oufkir
- 21D. Kwakman
- 8J. Clasie
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Sturm Graz
5-3-2- 19S. Seidl
- 26B. Beganović
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 78V. Matoshi
- 43Jacob Peter Hödl
- 2J. Quarshie
- 28J. Heil
- 27L. Balbo
- 23A. Malic
- 30P. Koller
- 53D. Khudyakov
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 12:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sturm Graz have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Floridsdorfer AC(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-3 | Bundesliga |
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 20th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 2 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 26th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz is played on December 10, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.