Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Sturm Graz (2,089) and Red Bull Salzburg (2,071).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Red Bull Salzburg have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sturm Graz win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Red Bull Salzburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| May 9, 2025 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Red Bull Salzburg score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and Red Bull Salzburg sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
- The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg played?
- Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.