Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Sturm Graz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Red Bull Salzburg (2,071) and Sturm Graz (2,089).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Red Bull Salzburg have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sturm Graz have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Mjallby AIF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | WSG Wattens(away) | 3-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Red Bull Salzburg win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Sturm Graz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| May 9, 2025 | Sturm Graz 4-2 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Red Bull Salzburg score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Red Bull Salzburg sit 4th in Bundesliga (7 points from 3 matches) and Sturm Graz sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
- The Footlab model makes Red Bull Salzburg the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Sturm Graz.
- Where and when is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz played?
- Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.