Subiza vs Cirbonero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Group 15 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sotoburu, Subiza
The Footlab model makes Subiza the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Cirbonero. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Subiza vs Cirbonero?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Subiza (1,820) and Cirbonero (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Subiza have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Cirbonero have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Izarra(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 17, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 9, 2026 | Beti Kozkor(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 3, 2026 | Peña Sport(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Valle Egüés(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Valle Egüés(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| May 3, 2026 | Huarte(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Cortes(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Oberena(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Izarra(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Subiza win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Cirbonero win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Subiza 0-1 Cirbonero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Cirbonero 1-2 Subiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Subiza 2-0 Cirbonero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Cirbonero 0-0 Subiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Cirbonero 0-0 Subiza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
| Dec 1, 2021 | Subiza 1-0 Cirbonero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 |
How many goals should we expect?
Subiza score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cirbonero score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subiza | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Cirbonero | 1.2 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Subiza sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 (54 points from 34 matches) and Cirbonero sit 10th (43 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Subiza | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 31 | 54 |
| 10 | Cirbonero | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 42 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Subiza vs Cirbonero?
- The Footlab model makes Subiza the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Cirbonero.
- Where and when is Subiza vs Cirbonero played?
- Subiza vs Cirbonero is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sotoburu, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.