Supra du Quebec vs Forge: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Forge the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Supra du Quebec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Forge starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,681).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Supra du Quebec have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Forge have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | York United(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Forge(away) | 2-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(home) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 3-3 | Canadian Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cavalry FC(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacific FC(home) | 2-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 3-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 0-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(away) | 0-0 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Supra du Quebec win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Forge win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Forge 3-2 Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Supra du Quebec 1-2 Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Forge 1-0 Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Forge vs Supra du Quebec on Aug 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Supra du Quebec score 1.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Forge score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0 | 15/15 | 11/15 |
| Forge | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Supra du Quebec sit 6th in Canadian Premier League (18 points from 17 matches) and Forge sit 1st (41 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 13 | 41 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 32 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
- The Footlab model makes Forge the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Supra du Quebec.
- Where and when is Supra du Quebec vs Forge played?
- Supra du Quebec vs Forge is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC), in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC