Sutton Utd vs AFC Hornchurch: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)VBS Community Stadium, Sutton, Surrey
The Footlab model makes AFC Hornchurch the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sutton Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sutton Utd vs AFC Hornchurch?
AFC Hornchurch starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,888 vs 1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sutton Utd have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; AFC Hornchurch have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hartlepool(home) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leicester City U21(home) | 0-0 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Altrincham(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Woking(away) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southampton U21(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Norwich City U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barrow(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Coventry City U21(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Sutton Utd win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 AFC Hornchurch win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2024 | AFC Hornchurch 0-3 Sutton Utd | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: AFC Hornchurch vs Sutton Utd on Jul 16, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Sutton Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Hornchurch score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| AFC Hornchurch | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sutton Utd sit 2nd in National League (9 points from 3 matches) and AFC Hornchurch sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sutton Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sutton Utd vs AFC Hornchurch?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Hornchurch the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Sutton Utd.
- Where and when is Sutton Utd vs AFC Hornchurch played?
- Sutton Utd vs AFC Hornchurch is played on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at VBS Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.