Tamworth vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueMatchday 29Kick-off on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The Lamb Ground, Tamworth, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Tamworth. The most likely score is 1-1. If Carlisle wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,441 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tamworth vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,657).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tamworth vs Carlisle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tamworth
4-3-3- 10K. Donnelly
- 23J. Hutchinson
- 9D. Creaney
- 19T. McGlinchey
- 4T. Kurtaran
- 30M. Roberts
- 3T. Handley
- 12J. Rye
- 29H. Carson
- 5T. Parkes
- 39R. Lovett
Carlisle
3-5-2- 7D. Ajiboye
- 10R. Linney
- 17L. Duru
- 8C. Whelan
- 30T. Jenks
- 4H. Bunker
- 32C. Camps
- 5M. Feeney
- 15B. Nicholson
- 22J. Williams
- 1A. Desbois
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 06:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tamworth have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Carlisle have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Everton U21(home) | 2-3 | National League Cup |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Woking(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 4-2 | National League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Harrogate Town(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 2-1 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Tamworth win, 0 draws, 2 Carlisle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Carlisle 2-1 Tamworth | FA Cup |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Tamworth 2-1 Carlisle | National League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Carlisle 2-1 Tamworth | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tamworth score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamworth | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Carlisle | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tamworth sit 20th in National League (17 points from 15 matches) and Carlisle sit 8th (26 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Carlisle | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 26 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 17 |
A question about Tamworth vs Carlisle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tamworth vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Carlisle the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Tamworth.
- Where and when is Tamworth vs Carlisle played?
- Tamworth vs Carlisle is played on January 26, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The Lamb Ground, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.