Svoboda vs Adria: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 17Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Športni park Svoboda, Ljubljana
The Footlab model makes Svoboda the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Adria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Svoboda vs Adria?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Svoboda (1,363) and Adria (1,378).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Svoboda have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Adria have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Šobec Lesce(away) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zidgrad Idrija(home) | 0-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | Škofja Loka(home) | 2-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 16, 2026 | IB 1975 Ljubljana(away) | 0-3 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Izola(home) | 2-2 | 3. SNL - West |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Izola(home) | 2-4 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Tolmin(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Vipava(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Primorje(home) | 0-4 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Svoboda win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Adria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | Adria 1-0 Svoboda | 3. SNL - West |
How many goals should we expect?
Svoboda score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Adria score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svoboda | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Adria | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Svoboda sit 10th in 3. SNL - West (1 points from 2 matches) and Adria sit 11th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Svoboda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Adria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Svoboda vs Adria?
- The Footlab model makes Svoboda the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Adria.
- Where and when is Svoboda vs Adria played?
- Svoboda vs Adria is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Športni park Svoboda, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.