SW Essen vs SF Baumberg: prediction and stats
Oberliga - NiederrheinNiederrhein - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC)Uhlenkrugstadion, Essen
The Footlab model makes SF Baumberg the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for SW Essen. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SW Essen vs SF Baumberg?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate SW Essen (1,736) and SF Baumberg (1,753).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SW Essen have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; SF Baumberg have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SSVg Velbert(home) | 1-4 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Scherpenberg(away) | 3-5 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Rot-Weiß Essen(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Meerbusch(home) | 3-4 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| May 31, 2026 | Kleve(away) | 3-4 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Meerbusch(away) | 4-2 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sonsbeck(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 0-7 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Büderich(away) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| May 31, 2026 | Biemenhorst(home) | 7-1 | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 SW Essen win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 SF Baumberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | SW Essen 2-2 SF Baumberg | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Aug 24, 2025 | SF Baumberg 4-2 SW Essen | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Mar 23, 2025 | SW Essen 2-0 SF Baumberg | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Sep 28, 2024 | SF Baumberg 0-1 SW Essen | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Mar 17, 2024 | SW Essen 0-1 SF Baumberg | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
| Sep 23, 2023 | SF Baumberg 0-0 SW Essen | Oberliga - Niederrhein |
Last archived meeting: SW Essen vs SF Baumberg on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SW Essen score 1.5 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; SF Baumberg score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW Essen | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| SF Baumberg | 1.5 | 2.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SW Essen sit 18th in Oberliga - Niederrhein (0 points from 2 matches) and SF Baumberg sit 11th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SF Baumberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | SW Essen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SW Essen vs SF Baumberg?
- The Footlab model makes SF Baumberg the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for SW Essen.
- Where and when is SW Essen vs SF Baumberg played?
- SW Essen vs SF Baumberg is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC) at Uhlenkrugstadion, in the Oberliga - Niederrhein.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 18, 2026KFC Uerdingen 05vsSC St. Tönis
- Dec 20, 2026SonsbeckvsFortuna Düsseldorf II
- Dec 20, 2026MeerbuschvsHolzheimer SG
- Dec 20, 2026ScherpenbergvsSSVg Velbert
- Dec 20, 2026Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.vsBüderich
- Dec 20, 2026Germania RatingenvsWuppertaler SV
- Dec 20, 2026MonheimvsSchonnebeck
- Dec 20, 2026Solingen-WaldvsBW Dingden