Swindon Town vs Colchester: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Colchester. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Colchester?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Swindon Town (1,789) and Colchester (1,763).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Colchester have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Swindon Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Colchester win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Colchester 3-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Swindon Town 0-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Swindon Town 3-2 Colchester | League Two |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Colchester 4-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Swindon Town 2-1 Colchester | FA Cup |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Swindon Town 2-2 Colchester | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Colchester vs Swindon Town on Apr 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Colchester sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Colchester?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Colchester.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Colchester played?
- Swindon Town vs Colchester is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.