Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme Kalju II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kadrioru staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tallinna Kalev the favourite at 68%, against 17% for a draw and 15% for Nõmme Kalju II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Tallinna Kalev starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,368 vs 1,170).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nõmme Kalju II have 1, 3 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(home) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme United II(away) | 0-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Tallinna Kalev win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Nõmme Kalju II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 5-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-4 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 2, 2016 | Nõmme Kalju II 3-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 13, 2016 | Tallinna Kalev 2-3 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 8, 2016 | Tallinna Kalev 6-0 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme Kalju II vs Tallinna Kalev on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme Kalju II score 1.1 and concede 2.9. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Nõmme Kalju II | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tallinna Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga A (18 points from 16 matches) and Nõmme Kalju II sit 7th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
| 7 | Nõmme Kalju II | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 35 | 17 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 67 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme Kalju II?
- The Footlab model makes Tallinna Kalev the favourite at 68%, against 17% for a draw and 15% for Nõmme Kalju II.
- Where and when is Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme Kalju II played?
- Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme Kalju II is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kadrioru staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.