Maardu vs Elva: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab AI model makes Maardu the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Elva. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maardu wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Elva?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Maardu (1,433) and Elva (1,391).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maardu vs Elva
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maardu
Not enough data to predict the Maardu lineup.
Elva
4-1-2-3- 18K. Põldsaar
- 22P. Alev
- 4A. Bangura
- 8R. Lindmäe
- 10J. Reilson
- 15R. Jaagant
- 6V. Kütt
- 55G. Lani
- 36E. Ilves
- 16M. Thomson
- 77S. Rebane
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Elva have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nõmme United II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 0-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 0-5 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Maardu wins, 0 draws, 3 Elva wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva 1-0 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Elva 4-3 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Maardu 0-3 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 14, 2021 | Maardu 2-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 25, 2021 | Elva 0-1 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 20, 2021 | Elva 0-6 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 2.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Elva score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 2.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Elva | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 6th in Esiliiga A (41 points from 28 matches) and Elva sit 4th (48 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elva | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 48 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 59 | 41 |
A question about Maardu vs Elva?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Elva?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maardu the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Elva.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Elva played?
- Maardu vs Elva is played on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.