Maardu vs Elva: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Maardu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Elva?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Maardu (1,412) and Elva (1,384).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Elva have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Maardu win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Elva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva 1-0 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Elva 4-3 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Maardu 0-3 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 14, 2021 | Maardu 2-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 25, 2021 | Elva 0-1 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 20, 2021 | Elva 0-6 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 8th in Esiliiga A (16 points from 15 matches) and Elva sit 4th (23 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Elva?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Maardu.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Elva played?
- Maardu vs Elva is played on October 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.