Tapachula vs Celaya: prediction and stats
Primera PremierRegular Season - 16Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula, Tapachula
The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tapachula. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celaya wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,514 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tapachula vs Celaya?
Celaya starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,964 vs 1,840).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tapachula vs Celaya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tapachula
Not enough data to predict the Tapachula lineup.
Celaya
Not enough data to predict the Celaya lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tapachula have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Celaya have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Montañeses(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Chapulineros(home) | 2-3 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pioneros de Cancún(away) | 1-5 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inter Playa del Carmen(home) | 2-0 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Celaya(away) | 0-2 | Primera Premier |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Racing de Veracruz(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Jaguares de Chiapas(home) | 0-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Deportiva Venados(away) | 2-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Montañeses(home) | 2-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chapulineros(away) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Tapachula win, 1 draw, 1 Celaya win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Celaya 2-0 Tapachula | Primera Premier |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Celaya 2-2 Tapachula | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tapachula 4-1 Celaya | Liga Premier Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Tapachula score 1.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Celaya score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapachula | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Celaya | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tapachula sit 17th in Primera Premier (3 points from 6 matches) and Celaya sit 5th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celaya | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 13 |
| 17 | Tapachula | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 3 |
A question about Tapachula vs Celaya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tapachula vs Celaya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Tapachula.
- Where and when is Tapachula vs Celaya played?
- Tapachula vs Celaya is played on January 16, 2027 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula, in the Primera Premier.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Jan 17, 2027IrapuatovsCordobés
- Jan 17, 2027H2O PurepechasvsReboceros La Piedad
- Jan 17, 2027MontañesesvsJaguares de Chiapas
- Jan 19, 2027Pioneros de CancúnvsInter Playa del Carmen