Tarbes vs Saint-Malo: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group BGroup B - 28Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, Tarbes
The Footlab model makes Saint-Malo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Tarbes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tarbes vs Saint-Malo?
Saint-Malo starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tarbes have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Saint-Malo have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Blagnac(away) | 2-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Onet-le-Château(home) | 6-1 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lège-Cap-Ferret(home) | 4-4 | National 3 - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pau II(away) | 1-0 | National 3 - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pontivy GSI(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group B |
| May 16, 2026 | Montlouis(away) | 2-2 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 9, 2026 | Dinan Léhon(home) | 2-1 | National 2 - Group A |
| May 2, 2026 | Lorient II(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saint-Colomban Locminé(home) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Tarbes win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Saint-Malo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2015 | Tarbes 2-1 Saint-Malo | National 2 - Group D |
| Nov 22, 2014 | Saint-Malo 0-1 Tarbes | National 2 - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Tarbes score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Saint-Malo score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarbes | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Saint-Malo | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tarbes sit 11th in National 2 - Group B (1 points from 1 matches) and Saint-Malo sit 8th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Saint-Malo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Tarbes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tarbes vs Saint-Malo?
- The Footlab model makes Saint-Malo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Tarbes.
- Where and when is Tarbes vs Saint-Malo played?
- Tarbes vs Saint-Malo is played on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Maurice Trélut 2 - Terrain B, in the National 2 - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.