Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 68%, against 16% for a draw and 16% for JK Tabasalu. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu?
Tartu Kalev starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,271 vs 1,152).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Kalev have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; JK Tabasalu have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(away) | 0-6 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(away) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Levadia U19(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tartu Kalev win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 JK Tabasalu win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 3-1 JK Tabasalu | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 21, 2026 | JK Tabasalu 3-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 4-0 JK Tabasalu | Esiliiga B |
| Oct 23, 2025 | JK Tabasalu 3-9 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 1-1 JK Tabasalu | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 19, 2025 | JK Tabasalu 2-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Kalev score 3.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; JK Tabasalu score 2.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 82% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Kalev | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| JK Tabasalu | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga B (41 points from 25 matches) and JK Tabasalu sit 8th (29 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 65 | 47 | 41 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 67 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 68%, against 16% for a draw and 16% for JK Tabasalu.
- Where and when is Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu played?
- Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu is played on October 24, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 82% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.