Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Johvi Phoenix. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Tartu Kalev (1,271) and Johvi Phoenix (1,215).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Kalev have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Johvi Phoenix have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Luunja(away) | 3-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Narva U21(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(away) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Legion(away) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tartu Kalev win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Johvi Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 3-2 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
| May 1, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix 4-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Johvi Phoenix 3-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Johvi Phoenix 1-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 0-1 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
| May 3, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 2-0 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Johvi Phoenix score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Johvi Phoenix | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Kalev sit 5th in Esiliiga B (40 points from 24 matches) and Johvi Phoenix sit 3rd (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Johvi Phoenix | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 41 | 28 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Johvi Phoenix.
- Where and when is Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix played?
- Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.