Luunja vs Legion: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Tartu Sepa tänava staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Luunja the favourite at 84%, against 9% for a draw and 7% for Legion. The most likely score is 4-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luunja vs Legion?
Luunja starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,194 vs 1,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luunja have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Legion have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 2-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tulevik(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 5-4 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(away) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Narva U21(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Saku Sporting(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 2-0 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Luunja win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Legion win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Luunja 12-0 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Legion 1-2 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Luunja 5-1 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Legion 0-2 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
| May 30, 2024 | Luunja 3-0 Legion | Esiliiga B |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Legion 1-1 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
How many goals should we expect?
Luunja score 2.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Legion score 1.1 and concede 4.4. The model gives a 90% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luunja | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Legion | 1.1 | 4.4 | 1 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luunja sit 3rd in Esiliiga B (44 points from 25 matches) and Legion sit 10th (12 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luunja | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 51 | 44 |
| 10 | Legion | 23 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 87 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luunja vs Legion?
- The Footlab model makes Luunja the favourite at 84%, against 9% for a draw and 7% for Legion.
- Where and when is Luunja vs Legion played?
- Luunja vs Legion is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 90% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.