Thes Sport vs Merelbeke: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 14Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sportcentrum Tessenderlo, Tessenderlo
The Footlab model makes Thes Sport the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thes Sport vs Merelbeke?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Thes Sport (1,855) and Merelbeke (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thes Sport have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Merelbeke have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Diegem Sport(home) | 6-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar(away) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Thes Sport win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Merelbeke win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Merelbeke 2-0 Thes Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Thes Sport 1-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Merelbeke 3-0 Thes Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Thes Sport 5-0 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
Last archived meeting: Merelbeke vs Thes Sport on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Thes Sport score 1.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thes Sport | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thes Sport sit 5th in First Amateur Division (22 points from 12 matches) and Merelbeke sit 14th (11 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Thes Sport | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 22 |
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thes Sport vs Merelbeke?
- The Footlab model makes Thes Sport the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Thes Sport vs Merelbeke played?
- Thes Sport vs Merelbeke is played on November 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sportcentrum Tessenderlo, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.