Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United?
Kagoshima United starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Kagoshima United have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kagoshima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-3 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Kagoshima United 5-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Kagoshima United 1-1 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Kagoshima United | J2 League |
| Jul 22, 2018 | Kagoshima United 0-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th in J3 League (0 points from 3 matches) and Kagoshima United sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United played?
- Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Kagoshima United is played on May 23, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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