Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Fukushima United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701) and Fukushima United (1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Fukushima United have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(away) | 1-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Oyama(home) | 7-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kanazawa(away) | 3-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(home) | 1-2 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Fukushima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Fukushima United | J2/J3 League |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Fukushima United 1-3 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2/J3 League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Fukushima United score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fukushima United | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Fukushima United sit 19th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 | Fukushima United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Fukushima United.
- Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United played?
- Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United is played on May 23, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 23, 2027FC GifuvsGainare Tottori
- May 23, 2027KanazawavsSagamihara
- May 23, 2027Renofa YamaguchivsEhime FC
- May 23, 2027Roasso KumamotovsBiwako Shiga
- May 23, 2027Kamatamare SanukivsParceiro Nagano
- May 23, 2027Thespakusatsu GunmavsKagoshima United
- May 23, 2027KitakyushuvsFC Ryukyu
- May 23, 2027Nara ClubvsTochigi SC