Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de Guentrange, Thionville
The Footlab model makes Thionville Lusitanos the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Valenciennes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Thionville Lusitanos (1,823) and Valenciennes (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thionville Lusitanos have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Valenciennes have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Caen(home) | 4-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aubagne(away) | 3-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Chambly Thelle FC(home) | 0-4 | National 2 - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bourg-en-bresse 01(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Thionville Lusitanos win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Valenciennes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | Thionville Lusitanos 2-2 Valenciennes | Coupe de France |
Last archived meeting: Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes on Dec 22, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Thionville Lusitanos score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Valenciennes score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thionville Lusitanos | 1.9 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Valenciennes | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thionville Lusitanos sit 1st in Ligue 3 (9 points from 3 matches) and Valenciennes sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thionville Lusitanos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Valenciennes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes?
- The Footlab model makes Thionville Lusitanos the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Valenciennes.
- Where and when is Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes played?
- Thionville Lusitanos vs Valenciennes is played on January 16, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de Guentrange, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.