Thiva vs Karystos: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5Group 5 - 4Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Thivas, Thebes
The Footlab model makes Karystos the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Thiva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thiva vs Karystos?
Karystos starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,544 vs 1,393).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thiva have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Karystos have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Agios Nikolaos(home) | 0-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Nea Ionia(away) | 0-6 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Marko(home) | 1-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Ethnikos Piraeus(home) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Ilisiakos(away) | 3-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Diagoras(away) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Nea Artaki(away) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Asteras Kaisarianis(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Afantou(home) | 3-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Aris Petroupolis(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Thiva score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Karystos score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiva | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Karystos | 0.8 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Karystos | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thiva vs Karystos?
- The Footlab model makes Karystos the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Thiva.
- Where and when is Thiva vs Karystos played?
- Thiva vs Karystos is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Thivas, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.