Toledo vs Manchego: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, Toledo
The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Manchego. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toledo vs Manchego?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Toledo (1,916) and Manchego (1,868).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toledo vs Manchego
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Manchego
Not enough data to predict the Manchego lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:29 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toledo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Manchego have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Villacañas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Solana(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Noblejas(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Almansa(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Villacañas(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Toledo win, 3 draws, 2 Manchego wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Toledo 1-0 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Manchego 1-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Toledo 0-0 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Manchego 1-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Toledo 1-1 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Manchego 2-0 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Manchego score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Manchego | 1.1 | 0.7 | 10 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toledo sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (10 points from 5 matches) and Manchego sit 1st (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Toledo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Toledo vs Manchego?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toledo vs Manchego?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Manchego.
- Where and when is Toledo vs Manchego played?
- Toledo vs Manchego is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Salto del Caballo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.